Friday, 1 April 2011

Libya Uprising: Update 1

[This comment was originally posted on our Facebook page. But as we have had 3 private messages already about the issue, we thought about sharing it here]

In reply to the private messages sent last week, we went ahead on our previous blog post and stated that the operation in Libya was NATO led before it was actually NATO. This is because in our opinion there was no other way it could have been organized. For the reasons stated on our previous blog post, the no-fly zone rationality was poorly sold to, in addition to the citizens of the countries enforcing it, the Arab nations the international coalition wanted to get involved as well. Without Arabs getting involved in the way ‘dreamed’ by France, the UK et al, NATO was the only alternative immediately available. Wise for the US to play only a marginal role, as this will go on now for a very long while and will cost dearly. We would be silly not to assume that foreign investment in Libyan hydrocarbons was one of the key reasons (important gas supply already prospected for Europe) to intervene. But even with Gaddafi gone, oil and gas production costs will increase importantly as foreign workers willing to go to Libya will be more expensive, so as insurance premiums. In addition, oil and gas production will need external private security, which is also expensive, and the risk of terrorist attacks will increase manifold in the Western world (and Qatar). Would that continue to make Libyan oil and gas that attractive? Wait one year to see the struggle to attract peacekeepers to secure Libya if rebels win. If the ragtag rebellion does not win, perhaps Brazil, Russia, India, and China will prove in the longer term wise to have abstained during the UNSC resolution vote.

In the next update we shall comment about the big elephant in the room, i.e. with reference to the decision of the Europeans to get involved pronto in spite of the precarious financial situation in many European countries: the fear of mass migration and a tidal wave of refugees, which have already started.

No comments: