Joe Biden’s defense and foreign policy triad: Contingent diplomacy, Conditional engagement, and Over-the-horizon strikes

The Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan already outlined what will be three of the pillars of American Defense and Foreign Policy for years to com: Contingent diplomacy, Conditional engagement, and Over-the-horizon strikes. These principles will not be passing priorities, as they partly address political sentiments of a nation in transition as they adapt to a multipolar world and a growingly fractured geopolitical landscape. However, the grand strategy is to lay down the groundwork needed for a possible confrontation with China. For instance, with AUKUS the U.S. will be establishing three (forward engagement) comparatively equidistant bases of operations in strategic world spots. Will the three outlined pillars withstand the stress caused by such an event? That is a question that no one can currently answer, not even Biden himself.

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Afghan Evacuation Crisis, Intelligence or Political Failure?

Fast forward to August 11, 2021, when it was widely reported that U.S. intelligence sources conceded that the Taliban could isolate Kabul in 30-60 days and capture the city within 90 days. Given the widespread low sentiment (on the ground and online) and defections across the country, those intelligence projections should have been crosschecked by the coalition partners and evacuation plans gone into overdrive –if it did not happen before, now it was the critical moment to do it. Nevertheless, did you hear of any intelligence projection originating in any country other than the U.S.? Ironically, this happened at the time those British ministers decided to go on holiday. When they returned from holiday evacuations did go into overdrive, but precious time was lost....

Countless volumes will be written about the last few weeks of the U.S.-led military mission in Afghanistan and the evacuation crisis that engulfed it. It would be easier to wait for the last airlift plane to take to the skies before writing anything about it. However, we hope that the three separate views in this article will help the reader to start thinking critically about what went wrong and the lessons that must be learned. ...

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The Fall of Afghanistan: A New Private Military Boom or the Demise of the Private Military Cover?

 

Along with the rapid and tumultuous recapture of Afghanistan by the Taliban since U.S. President Joe Biden announced in mid-April the withdrawal of American troops from the country by September 11th, 2021, there has been a debate about the role security contractors will play in the future of the country. A key question some experts attempt to answer is if, moving forward, we will see more of less security contractors deployed, Secondly, what type of contractors are likely to be deployed, e.g., the Blackwater type, the Wagner Group type, the Chinese variant, or ICoCA certified type of firms.

As ever, it is positive to discuss issues like these. However, this is a premature debate. Currently, we can only venture to speculate alternative scenarios about the future of Afghanistan and the role international firms might play in it. If the incredibly swift and capricious pace of events has failed to convince you, international affairs no longer unfold in the linear way we were used to in the past –e.g., the intelligence community's myopic linearity failed to foresee the Taliban reaching Kabul before September 11th.

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China’s President Xi Jinping’s most pressing question: To invade or not to invade Taiwan now

Autocrats inhabit lonely planets. They can always make bold, costly and risky decisions because they remain accountable only to themselves. They are particularly dangerous when their power game morphs into a quest for the forging of epic legacies and dynastic myths. China’s Xi Jinping appears to be pivoting towards this messianic path. ...Annexing Taiwan, however, would guarantee him a place in the autocrats’ pantheon. ... As worrying and cynic as it sounds, the current historical juncture offers the best opportunity for China to attempt, finally, an incursion into Taiwan. 

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