Along with the rapid and tumultuous recapture of Afghanistan by the Taliban since U.S. President Joe Biden announced in mid-April the withdrawal of American troops from the country by September 11th, 2021, there has been a debate about the role security contractors will play in the future of the country. A key question some experts attempt to answer is if, moving forward, we will see more of less security contractors deployed, Secondly, what type of contractors are likely to be deployed, e.g., the Blackwater type, the Wagner Group type, the Chinese variant, or ICoCA certified type of firms.
As ever, it is positive to discuss issues like these. However, this is a premature debate. Currently, we can only venture to speculate alternative scenarios about the future of Afghanistan and the role international firms might play in it. If the incredibly swift and capricious pace of events has failed to convince you, international affairs no longer unfold in the linear way we were used to in the past –e.g., the intelligence community's myopic linearity failed to foresee the Taliban reaching Kabul before September 11th.
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